Why 2009 is Now or Never for a Pujols Triple Crown

2001 may have brought the two best “rookies” that the MLB will ever see, although Ichiro was the most experienced rookie the American League may ever see. Meanwhile, 2001 National League Rookie of the Year, Albert Pujols put up a .329 average, 37 home runs, and 130 RBIs. Now, the Machine is 29 years old and every season announcers briefly discuss his chances at a Triple Crown.

Now before I defend my stance on how tough it would be for Pujols to win a Triple Crown either this year or ever, I think he is the most dangerous hitter in the majors.

The FACTORS
History (Con)

As amazing as Pujols’ home runs, average, day in and day out performance, in today’s game the Triple Crown is so rare and has not been seen now in 42 years! In a pre-home run era of 32 seasons, from 1878- 1909, five Triple Crown seasons occur. Then from 1922 through 1967, where home runs start to dictate baseball, 11 Triple Crowns are awarded in 46 seasons. One reason a Triple Crown hasn’t been seen in so long is due to specialties in baseball. Most players are paid to do one thing and hit home runs or do one other thing and get on base. Pujols balances those opposites as well as anyone today, but can he beat his own consistency and have the one year spurt to compete and win a Triple Crown.

NL Central of 2009 (Pro)
Yet another possible advantage or disadvantage for Pujols, he plays in the only division with six teams. The NL Central averages 16 games against each of their opponents. The average division with five teams average 18 games against each opponent. The advantage for Pujols is he dominates against NL Central teams and gets about six more games a year in division than any other team.

The bit of hope that I push forward as I dim hopes on a Triple Crown, especially a Pujols Triple Crown, there is hope for 2009. The NL Central has allowed a tremendous amount of home runs this season. Out of 16 NL teams, Pittsburgh ranks 6th, Chicago 10th, Cincinnati 12th, Houston 13th, and Milwaukee 15th. When four division opponents are ranked in the bottom six of the National League in home runs allowed, it’s a huge chance to pad some stats in division. I would say playing against 5 division opponents is an advantage for Pujols. He knows many of the starters and is able to turn it on against these teams. Lastly, the Machine’s numbers against the Pirates are his best against any division team, so that may give him some leverage against the team allowing the least home runs in his division.

Age (Con, and slightly a Pro)
As a most outside factor, I found that the oldest Triple Crown Winner ever was Lou Gehrig, and if Pujols has the consistency to resemble any Triple Crown winner, it would be Gehrig. Over their first eight seasons, Pujols averaged .334, 39 and 122. Gehrig averaged .342 33 and 141. The advantage in these similarities is that it opens the door for the discussion to say if Gehrig was so consistent, maybe Pujols can pull out a Triple Crown at the same age. Gehrig’s only spurt that year was his homeruns which he tied his career high, but his .363 average and 165 RBI’s were both only his fourth best performances in those categories.

Gehrig was 31 when he won the Triple Crown. This may not seem so old but it is well over the Triple Crown winning average of 26.4 years old. Besides Gehrig, only one player, Frank Robinson, won the award at the age of 30. This pushes the pressure onto the 2009 season as Pujols’ best chance a Triple Crown at age 29.

The Future (Con)
So if Pujols can’t do it this year why not next year or the year after, he won’t be 31 until 2011. Mainly because the NL Central pitching is only getting better over the next 2 years. The Pittsburgh staff he dominates so well is comprised of five starters all ages 26 and 27. As they hit their prime they will only get better as pitchers but against Pujols. The Brewers have two young 1 and 2 starters in Yovani Gallardo and David Bush, and Braden Looper will most likely exercise his option to stay in Milwaukee as he is on his way to a solid year. The Astros have no staff beyond Roy Oswalt, and will most likely start rebuilding their franchise with new pitching this off season. Chicago has a decent staff, but Pujols hits .282 in Wrigley, his only sub-.300 ballpark in the NL Central. Lastly, the Cincinnati Reds may have the best staff next season if Micah Owings concentrates less on his hitting and more on his pitching. The Reds have the lowest ERA in the NL Central at 3.91 and their young staff will be the core to this team for years to come.

As excited and happy as I would be to see Pujols win a Triple Crown, I just don’t think it can be done in the Majors for a long time. If any player in the game today was made to win a Triple Crown, its Pujols and writing this makes me wonder if I will ever see a Triple Crown winner in my lifetime. The last reason I feel 2009 has to be his year is he is among the home run leaders right now. The last two seasons, Pujols has been 11 and 18 home runs off the leader, but right now is only three away from the lead. His recent 0-15 slump has put him 45 points off of David Wright’s NL leading batting average, as well as five RBI’s behind Raul Ibanez. If he can stay in the hunt with his power numbers, and does not hit any more slumps he has a chance. It would be outstanding to make up so much ground while not slipping in home runs or RBIs, but there are 100 games to be played and a Triple Crown season takes some outstanding hitting.

Welcome to Fielder's Choice

Most of you reading this probably got the link to this blog from myself and I thank you for reading. I am just starting this blog to just have some fun and just write about baseball.

I want to create a couple of my own stories and make some people think about how tough and amazing baseball can be at times. I also want to allow for an appreciation of the game. My hope is that maybe by the end of this baseball season, I will have a few followers that can share and criticize my thoughts and so on. If not, I'll still have some fun with it and I will probably learn a ton about the game.

Thanks in advance to all who read beyond this post.

-Matt Kemp